Thoughts on COVID-19

From a Marine Buddy:

Well, at this point there are all kinds of inputs about the situation from a wide variety of sources, some of which seem to be fairly objective and decently researched, others of which are more biased or into conspiracy theories about vaccination and world control, etc. I think the latest one I read had to be at least the 15th or so. Trying to get my head around it all has been an effort, but here are some thoughts about it. First, it appears to be a remarkably communicable virus, it's shown up in all kinds of people for whom it's hard to figure out where they could possibly have come into contact with carriers. Since no one has tested their entire population, it's impossible to say what fraction of people really have been infected. Secondly, the range of effects of it are extremely wide, from little to no symptoms at all, to mild flu cases, to more serious flu cases, to very serious cases that cause death. This is hard to understand. What is easy to understand is that the great majority of the deaths occur in people over 70 with prior existing health problems. Only a minor fraction of deaths involve younger, healthy people, but such situations do exist. Secondarily, of the deaths of older, sick people, a very large fraction of those have taken place in rest homes, retirement facilities, etc. All of this leads to many knowledgeable people concluding that general lockdowns don't really make a huge difference in what happens in terms of people getting sick or death rates. And that the sensible thing to do is provide maximum protection for the most vulnerable people, and allow everyone else to go about their business. Of course, others disagree, some even believe it's better to lock down economies for 18 months to save every possible life, regardless of the collateral damage to the lives of everyone else, which they refuse to consider. We are told by some that masks are necessary, yet others say they are not and in fact are just breeding grounds for bacteria. We are told that ventilators save lives yet others say they are not always useful and can make things worse. There are at least three major theories about where the virus came from originally, whether it's 100% natural or has been altered somehow in a lab. The only thing we are sure of is that it started in Wuhan and the Chinese government mishandled it from the start and lied, lied, lied about it for months. And even after they wouldn't let flights from Wuhan continue to Chinese cities, they allowed international flights from Wuhan to go to other countries, which really was the major way that the virus spread across the world. What I think we know is that our media and others have hyped the situation greatly, increasing fear unnecessarily, and that some people have tried to use the situation for their political agenda. (Which I find beyond disgusting.) Finally, trying to understand what kind of threat this really is in western nations, I look at Sweden, where they did a comparatively minimal lockdown, and have had a higher death rate than their neighbor Norway, where they did a fuller lockdown. The last numbers I saw from there have about 2900 deaths, in a population of over 10MM. Of those deaths something over 2100 were people over 70. That population is 20% of the nation, or about 2MM people. 2100/2,000,000 = 0.1% Not to sound cold and clinical, but losing a tiny fraction of the oldest and sickest in the population is not a disaster to a society. Personally, I think that really long term economic disaster is a much higher price to pay in the effect on people's lives, and will include deaths as well. People not going to see their doctors, only going to the ER when extremely sick, not getting tests and procedures when they should, all add up to more deaths. Everyone has a right to their own opinions on this. I think this might have been handled better in the first place, and that in many parts of the country we should be moving back towards normal functions in a careful pace starting now. But so far we seem to have a lot of politicians and bureaucrats more interesting in exercising petty power (some of it unconstitutional) than really doing what's best for the people. And that's my two cents worth. Let's hope things start to turn around

soon. --Del