I was copied this through my blog e-mail network, and the General kindly allowed this old Staff Sergeant to post it. ~Bob
A Nuclear Iran
Below is my response to two articles sent to me by the Republican National Committee. Check out the articles forwarded to me below.
The below articles are very interesting. I think the Reuters article is on target and the James Traub article is more intellectual and requires more thought to put it all in perspective. My thought is the Obama Administration keeps kicking the can down the road concerning a nuclear Iran while Russia, China and Iran plays the US like a fiddle. I don't agree that we have achieved any significant gains from Russia.
Here is my take on the seriousness of the current nuclear issue with Iran:
Neither China nor Russia will approve sanctions that will have any impact on Iran's nuclear program...sanctions will not work. Both China and Russia like to see the US tied down in the Middle East militarily and economically, while they develop their own high tech deployable military and further develop their economies. Considering our national debt and need for China to buy our treasury bonds, this Administration will not put much pressure on them. China is really in the drivers seat and will dictate their foreign policy objectives to the US, and sanctions are not in their interest.
I have a different perspective about Russia. Russia does not want Iran to develop nuclear weapons, but they very well may want Israel or perhaps the US to bomb Iranian nuclear sites. If this happens, the price of oil will sky rocket (maybe $400 a barrel) and Russia will benefit as an oil producing Nation. Iran has been trying to get Russia to provide their new surface to air missile technology, but they have resisted so far...there is a limit to their support. As indicated in the Reuters article, over a year ago Israel attacked facilities in Syria (potential nuclear facility being developed by North Korea) and was able to get in and out of Syria undetected. Iran has the same missile defense system and they know they are vulnerable.
I agree with the Reuters article that the reported additional nuclear facilities in Iran probably will not happen anytime soon, but you should never underestimate clandestine support and their ability to construct them.
Ahmadinejad often talks about the 13th Mahdi, and the Mahdi will return to earth when there is absolute chaos. When this occurs, infidels will be killed and Muslims will rule the world. A logical thinking person would find this to be an absurd concept, but we are dealing with a sociopath and religious cult who believes this can happen. I believe he thinks the only way to create total chaos is from nuclear weapons. This is why a nuclear Iran is so dangerous not only to Israel, but to the world. There are many ways they could employ nuclear weapons: man packed carried across borders; surface detonation via missiles, and electronic magnetic pulse (EMP) from atmospheric nuclear detonation. Iran recently launched a satellite into orbit with a missile so we now know they have the capability to strike the US, but I don't think this would be their option, as it would be detected. A man packed nuclear weapon is the easiest way to deploy nuclear weapons and it would be very difficult to determine if Iran provided such weapons to terrorists. The most devastating would be through EMP. This can be done with just a simple SCUD missile fired from a cargo ship off the coast of the US or any Nation. The ship would then be destroyed and it would be hard to determine who was responsible. Nuclear weapons exploded in the atmosphere would destroy all electronics...nothing would work. Electronic grids, cars, trucks, phones, hospital equipment would no longer work. Food could not be delivered, and those on medications and life saving equipment would perish very quickly. Perhaps only a small percentage of the population would survive. You don't hear much about EMP in the news, but it is for real and many other countries have this capability. Iran is the real threat though.
The issue is what is the Obama Administration doing about this potential devastating threat? Essentially, they are pursuing diplomatic efforts to obtain sanctions. They are playing nice with rogue countries and hoping this will all go away. I think Obama, Clinton and his extremist Czars are both naïve and stupid about foreign affairs and overall implications of having a nuclear Iran. Should Iran finally develop nuclear weapons, this will impact the balance of power in the Middle East and will likely result in nuclear proliferation by other Middle Eastern countries.
This Administration is trying to appease Israel by establishing deadlines for Iran to stop their nuclear program, but Iran just keeps marching on. Israel probably feels they have no choice but to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. This will be a very difficult task for them if they use conventional weapons and the Iranian nuclear facilities are deep underground. It would take a specific type of MOPP bomb to penetrate these sites, and it is unknown if the US ever gave them any. If so, it was done during the Bush Presidency. Israel just announced their new very large drone aircraft, which could provide many operational advantages. If Israel decides to bomb these facilities, then the US must give flight rights over Iraq, so we will have knowledge and will be blamed along with the Israelis. Since this is the case, the US should take out the surface to air missile sites and boats that will likely mine the Straits of Hormuz (this would impact the flow of oil out of the Middle East). I doubt we will provide such assistance as Obama's left wing base will raise hell. Should Israel attack Iran, there will be a global economic impact, but I believe that is preferable to a nuclear Iran. A conventional attack would probably only set the program back a few years, but that may allow enough time for a potential coup to occur as the Iranian people might overthrowing the existing government...that is a big if! Israel should also bomb their refineries as Iran is the 3rd largest importer in the world of gasoline. You can probably count on the Russians providing them gasoline, but it would not be sufficient to meet all needs. Such an attack could bring Iran to their knees.
The other and more devastating attack would be for Israel to conduct an EMP attack on Iran, but this is not likely as the world would demonize them. It would; however, send a strong message to the Nations sponsoring terrorism.
This is just a quick take on my perspective about the Iranian nuclear program and the Obama Administration's failed diplomatic approach. When it comes to foreign policy, I can't think of one thing they have accomplished. They are causing the US to lose National prestige.
Geoffrey B Higginbotham
Major General, USMC (Ret.)
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The General is spot on, on every issue, and I wholeheartedly agree with his conclusions.ReplyDelete
Unfortunately, the General is correct. Many citizens are now realizing that our civilian leadership has seriously misled us. Globalist economic policy has opened the door for this threat and is allowing it to grow into monstrous proportions.ReplyDelete
The China / Russia / Iran connections are discussed in this article-
Iran and the Elephant in the Room
The true nature of the threat is explained in this essay-
The Unconsidered Enemy
Note that the following news link dated 20 Feb 2010 indicates that Russia “has every intention of delivering the advanced S-300 air defense missile systems to the Islamic Republic”.
Russia stands by S-300 delivery to Iran
Your thoughts and attention to this most serious topic are greatly appreciated.
Do you have, can you post a copy of the Reuters article and the James Traub article as referenced by the General?ReplyDelete
Man, this shit is obviously all racist. Where the black brothers at?ReplyDelete
It is all well and good for the Chinese and Russians to leave the Iran issue be, letting the Americans remain bogged down in the Middle East. The general's analysis of the situation is certainly on the mark, but it makes one wonder whether such analysis has taken place in Russian and Chinese defense communities. Consider that both the Chinese and especially the Russians have already had experience in combating violent Islamism. It is definitely naive of the current liberal policy-makers to think they can play nice with Iran, but Russia and China aren't apparently convinced of what an insanely widespread proliferation issue it would become if the Iranians manage to get man-portable nuclear devices. Suddenly, we are looking at a potential game changer. I would be much more worried about man-portable nuclear devices if I were Russian or Chinese... there are many direct land routes with laughable border controls from Iran. Any terrorist access to Iranian-derived nuclear weaponry would eventually lead to Russia and China becoming targets. Of course, the United States would be higher on the priority list... but the Russians and Chinese would be suicidally naive to think that their support for the Iranians at this point would translate to them not becoming eventual targets of indigenous violent Islamists.ReplyDelete
The general has some very interesting/valid points, but this is typical military mentality. If history proves anything, specifically the cuban missile crisis, the civilian leadership's cooler heads usually prove out. The military at that time insisted that anything short of a full-scale invasion of cuba would result in catastrophic war. It's their natural gut reaction on things, god bless them, but they usually look at situations in a very extreme light.ReplyDelete
To stop Iran's nuclear program you need to take out the engineers and scientists who run the program. Bet they are easy targets.ReplyDelete
Despite the bad history in the movie, which made the military out to be bad guys and the Kennedys heroes, it was the Marine Commandant, Gen. David Shoup, who convinced JFK the casualties would be far too high if we invaded. Shoup, who earned the Medal of Honor commanding the beachhead on Tarawa, showed a map of how large Cuba is—much larger than most people realize. Then he showed Tarawa next to it, just a dot. Then he told them that 1,200 Marines died in three days taking Tarawa. He said the military could take Cuba, but the cost in American lives would be very high. It was the military who put the breaks on.ReplyDelete
The general's take on the EMP threat is not valid.ReplyDelete
Any weapon developed by the Iranians would certainly be much closer to the level of the north korean or pakistani efforts. A simple gun-type fission weapon would be first. Definitely not man portable. Looking at their time line, they run out of oil in less than 20 years, and therefore probably don't have the time and wont have the money to develop the technology for a high yield pulse weapon. The geometries are very complicated, and took the US decades to develop. It is just not going to happen.
They could, however, scintillate the atmosphere with a primitive weapon and knock out most satcoms for a couple of hours, which would make waging war difficult(not having GPS would seriously screw up a lot of weapons systems), but lacks a clear military objective in itself.