Two Pandemics: One Serious, One Mild

Two Pandemics: One Serious, One Mild

https://www.aier.org/article/two-pandemics-one-serious-one-mild/

Excerpt: The Commonwealth of Massachusetts presents an exception to this data deficit. Ranking among the hardest-hit of US states outside of the New York City region, Massachusetts began tracking detailed daily COVID-19 case and mortality statistics for LTC facilities on April 10, 2020.  (...)  The clear patterns in these data suggest that the coronavirus would be better understood if we began to treat it as two simultaneous pandemics: one severe but acute outbreak that ravages nursing homes and LTCs with extremely high fatalities concentrated among the elderly and infirm, and a second significantly milder wave in the general population.  As nearly all mitigation strategies have focused on containing the spread in the general population through lockdowns and similar mandates, the policy response has almost entirely missed the mark despite unleashing unprecedented devastation to our economy and social fabric. Daily data from Massachusetts illustrate the divergence of the two simultaneous pandemics. As may be seen in the chart below, they show steady growth in the share of COVID-19 deaths arising from LTC facility outbreaks since the beginning of record keeping. Furthermore, these two trends continue to split apart. For the month of June, Massachusetts averaged only 9 COVID-19 deaths per day in the general population. By contrast, the state’s LTC facilities averaged 27 deaths per day despite comprising a tiny share of the population.[I can’t help wondering if the only reason I’m alive is because I’m NOT in a nursing home. Being old isn’t always fun, but it appears to beat the alternative. Ron P.]