The state of the race

The ‘Toss Up’ States That Don’t Really Look Like Toss-Ups Anymore. By Jim Geraghty, Morning Jolt

http://www.nationalreview.com/newsletters

Excerpt: USA Today’s projection of the Electoral College map currently has Hillary Clinton winning 263 electoral votes, Donald Trump winning 180, and 95 in the “toss up” category. Much to the frustration of everyone hoping to see Hillary Clinton defeated, this map is probably too skeptical about her chances in some key states. The map lists Wisconsin as “toss up” but Clinton has never trailed there, or even been tied with Trump. The map lists North Carolina as “toss up,” but Clinton has led the last 13 polls. Florida is also listed as a toss up; Clinton has led the last eight polls there. The last eight polls in Nevada show Clinton leading in seven and a tie in the eighth; that state is listed as a “toss up.” Utah is in the Trump pile, even though the last three surveys in that state show Evan McMullin down by one point, ahead by 4 points, and down by one point. In short, the map is just about as bad as it can get for a Republican nominee. Even in the worst moments of the McCain campaign in 2008, the GOP never feared losing Texas. A new CBS poll puts Trump up by 3 points in the Lone Star State. Only two polls have been conducted of Arizona this month; one puts Clinton ahead by 5 points, the other by 2 points. Trump fans can insist that every poll by every pollster is rigged; that every poll is failing to sample all of those notoriously shy Trump voters, ...

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While the Donaldcrats in the spring were saying they were voting for Trump in the primaries because he would beat Hillary like a rented mule, I've been predicting that nominating Trump meant electoral disaster for Republicans since he announced. Now they are flailing around, looking for someone besides themselves to blame for the coming debacle. On November 8th, they will learn the cost of Trump's disdain for databases, GOTV efforts and conservatives, plus the effects of his unending stream of invective. This against the worst Democrat candidate in living memory.

From my "Random Thoughts" for February, 2016, posted on my blog: I believe strongly that if Trump is the nominee, Clinton or Sanders will be the next President. I could not vote to make any of the three President. ... 2015 will be remembered as the year when Donald Trump (after decades of supporting Bill and Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi and liberal causes such as the illegal immigrant Dreamers, universal and single-payer healthcare, big government and crony capitalism, the Iran Deal, and abortion, plus bashing George Bush and Reagan) became a conservative. At least he said he did. But them he also once said Oprah would be a great vice president. ... I think that electing Hillary Clinton, or Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump president would be disastrous for the country, each in different ways. But Trump has an additional problem. Electing him will destroy the conservative movement as his manifest flaws throw sand in the gears and he is held up by liberals for decades as the "conservative" bogyman.

From my "Random Thoughts" for May, 2016, posted on my blog: The fact is that for as long as I have known about Donald Trump, I have held him in contempt and disdain. In my book he is a bloviating, coprophagic fustilarian. And always will be. I could never vote for him and still consider myself a person of integrity. ... I am now supporting Sen. Ted Cruz for president. But let's be clear--if he is nominated the battle against Hillary or Bernie will be uphill. Hillary will have the machine, the money and the media behind her. The electoral college math tilts against any Republican candidate. If Cruz loses to Hillary, the Donaldcrats will say, "I told you so!," ignoring the fact that Cruz does about ten points better than Trump against her.  Jonah Goldberg pointed out the principled conservatives will not vote for Trump (I'm #Never Trump guy), while the Donaldcrats will not vote for anyone else. He said, "This ends in tears no matter what. Get over it and pick a side." A full 36% of Wisconsin Republicans say they will not vote for Trump if he is the nominee. With Cruz, even if we lose, there will be less down-ballot disaster for conservatives. Trump will, I believe, lose huge and take the Senate with him--and maybe the House. With Cruz we may--may I said--be able to save the Senate. ... People who invested up to $35k in Trump University, based on the lie that he was going to handpick the instructors, got burned. People who were creditors of Trump Airlines, Trump Taj Mahal Casino (3 times), Trump Mortgage, Trump Network, Trump Steaks, and Trump vodka got burned. People who invest in "Trump the President" are going to get burned, if he doesn't get the nomination, if he does, but is crushed by Hillary as the polls show, or, worse, if some black swan event makes him president and he brings his know nothing, bullying, crude, insulting, no-core-values approach to managing the country. ... I have a bachelors degree in government and a master's in history. I served as a Marine, including Vietnam and for five terms in the Massachusetts Senate. I have 31 years management experience in the private sector, and am sure I have read more than a thousand books on history, politics, economics and foreign affairs. That doesn't begin to prepare me for the presidency. But it does mean I'm about ten times more prepared than Donald Trump for the presidency.