Models, Math, and Facts on the Ground

Models, Math, and Facts on the Ground

https://ewerickson.substack.com/p/models-math-and-facts-on-the-ground?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo2NDg2NzYxLCJwb3N0X2lkIjozMzczNDMsIl8iOiJKYjVlNiIsImlhdCI6MTU4NTQxNzI0MCwiZXhwIjoxNTg1NDIwODQwLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMjc4NDMiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.wxaz2LJH2TYrWEMI7DNhxkxzKpLieHzvmF2nxvE7F28

Excerpt: First, please note that while parts of the press seem somewhat celebratory that the United States now has passed China in numbers of COVID-19 infections, the reality is China lies about its numbers. Look no further than China reinstituting a ban on movie theaters. A country that was doing okay would not be doing that. Second, as of this writing there are just under 105,000 cases in this country. The sourcing is here and for a nation of 327 million people, that means only .03% of the population is affected. Those, however, are known cases and the odds are more people have it. Third, the problem is that though .03% of the population has it, it is overwhelming hospitals in places like Albany, GA, a city of around 100,000 people and New York City, a city of 8.6 million people. It is also starting to overwhelm hospitals in other areas, like Atlanta and New Orleans.