Friday, August 16, 2019

Warning Signs for Republicans
Excerpt: President Trump has backed off tariffs on toys made in China. His Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, said the administration did not want to hurt Christmas. This is an admission against interest that the trade war with China is hurting the American people. Last week, the yield curve inverted. Normally, the yields, or interest rate, on long term bonds are better than the short term bond yields. The government is now having to pay higher rates on 2 year bonds than on 10 year bonds because investors are losing confidence in the short term economy. This “inverted yield curve” has happened before every recession in the past 50 years. Janet Yellin, the former chair of the Federal Reserve, said she thinks the economy is strong, but she is troubled by this development. The President blames the current head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, for having raised interest rates only to lower them. The problem for the President is that no one elected Powell. President Trump appointed Powell. The President claimed he only hires the best people and now blames his own appointee. If the President does not do something positive for the economy, already agitated voters may revolt. (an inversion in interest rates has always been followed by a recession, according to my investment guy. ~Bob)

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