Sunday, December 11, 2016

Scott Adam on Climate Change

Worth Reading: The Non-Expert Problem and Climate Change Science. By Scott Adams
Excerpt: As I said above, I accept the consensus of climate science experts when they say that climate science is real and accurate. But I do that to protect my reputation and my income. I have no way to evaluate the work of scientists. If you ask me how scared I am of climate changes ruining the planet, I have to say it is near the bottom of my worries. If science is right, and the danger is real, we’ll find ways to scrub the atmosphere as needed. We always find ways to avoid slow-moving dangers. And if the risk of climate change isn’t real, I will say I knew it all along because climate science matches all of the criteria for a mass hallucination by experts. (Not being a climate scientist, it is worth recalling what the scientific method is and the kinds of fallacies of data, reasoning and belief that should make people cautious abut the concept of consensus applied to science. Following is a statement explaining how the scientific method applies to the study of dinosaurs. What is a Hypothesis (from the Museum of the Rockies) "A hypothesis is a scientific idea supported by physical evidence. Scientists gather and observe physical evidence. Then, they propose an idea based on that physical evidence. This idea is called a hypothesis. Hypotheses may be the true or they may be untrue, but it takes physical evidence to propose them and to disprove them. Although scientists do gather physical evidence to support their hypotheses, good scientists also look for evidence that their hypotheses these are wrong. This may seem strange, but instead of trying to figure out if their ideas are right, scientists try, and invite other scientists, to prove their hypotheses are wrong. The more times a hypothesis is tested and not disproved, the stronger it becomes. This is how scientific knowledge advances; we learn from our mistakes and keep trying to improve our understanding based on the evidence we find. A hypothesis must be testable, either by repeating or falsifying/disapproving. A chemist might repeat an experiment, but a paleontologist cannot repeat long-past events. The very best hypotheses and paleontology are those that can potentially be disproved." Even though data that are used to hypothesize climate change are contemporaneous, there are more reasons to suspect an irreversible conclusion than there are to accept an extreme forecast as indisputable. Cordially, Larry Greenberg)

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