Objectively: It’s Over By Erick Erickson
Excerpt: On October 17, 2012, the Real Clear Politics average had Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney by 0.4%. At the same time in 2008, Barack Obama led John McCain by 6.7% in the RCP average. As of today, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 5.5%. In 2008, Barack Obama ultimately beat John McCain by 7.2% and in 2012, Obama beat Romney by 3.9%. In both elections, the ultimate outcome was higher than the polling average. It will be that way again. In fact, in modern American history no candidate has come out of the convention season with a polling deficit and then won in November. Therein lies the rub for Donald Trump. He and his campaign have been convinced that the normal rules of politics do not apply anymore. They still do. Trump has provided no compelling, coherent message. He has shot himself in the foot repeatedly. His campaign was completely unprepared for the opposition research drummed up by the Democrats. His campaign put in no ground game, invested little in advertising dollars, and thought they could continue to rely on free, unquestioning media coverage.